2010 Elections in Florida

Robert Crew is professor of political science, director of the master’s program in applied American politics, and associate dean of the College of Social Sciences and Public Policy at Florida State University. He has held governmental and political positions at state and national levels, and has managed and consulted on political campaigns at all levels of government.

• TABLE OF CONTENTSList of TablesvPrefaceviiPart I: The 2010 Elections in Florida: It’s the Economy Stupid!1The 2010 Statewide Elections: A Unique Year3The Martinez Decision3The National Economy and Florida Politics4The Race for the U.S. Senate: The Candidates5The Race for Governor: The Candidates6The Race for Statewide Office: Attorney General, Chief Financial Commissioner of Agriculture and Chief Financial Officer7Part II: The Race for the U.S. Senate9The Campaign for the U.S. Senate: Background and Context11The Primary Campaigns11The Democratic Primary: Background and Context16The Outcome of the Democratic Primary22The U.S. Senate General Election22 The Outcome of the Senate Race29The Senatorial Election Results31 Alternative Voting: Early and Absentee Ballots 31Patterns in Senatorial Elections: Party Success 32The County-by-County Outcome 33Part III: The Race for Governor 43Social Groups and the Senatorial Vote: 2006, 2008, 201045How Social Groups Voted in the Senatorial Race45Gender, Age, and Race45Changing in Voting Coalitions between 2006 and 2010475 The Race for Governor: Strategy53The Republican Primary54The Outcome of the Primary58The General Election for Governor596The Gubernatorial Election Results65The County-by-County Vote65Voter Turnout667Group Voting in the 2010 Gubernatorial Election69How Social Groups Voted in the 2010 Gubernatorial Election69Voting Coalitions, 1998 through 201071Part IV: The Races for Other Statewide Offices838The Race for Attorney General, Chief Financial Officer and85Officer and Commissioner of AgricultureThe Primary Campaign for Attorney General 85The General Election for Attorney General91The Race for Commissioner of Agriculture97Election Results for Statewide Offices99Part V: The 2010 Congressional Elections1039The Campaigns for Congress105Introduction105District by District Analysis106The Pattern of Outcomes122Explaining the Results124Part VI: The 2010 State Legislative Elections14110The Campaigns for the State Legislature143Introduction143The Parameters of the 2010 Election 143Overall Results: Legislative Races with Two-Party Competition145Competitive Races in 2010: House Seats145Competitive Senate Races150Additional Incumbent Losses151Patterns of Outcomes153Explaining the Results155Part VII: The Florida Elections of 2010 in Perspective159The 2010 Election and the Future of Florida Politics161Introduction161Legislative Apportionment162Minor Party Candidates165Term Limits166Bibliography 167Index173

The outcome of competitive elections for national, state, and local races in Florida has significant implications for politics and public policy both within the Sunshine State and the United States as a whole. That is why it is important to be able to identify those factors that help us explain and predict election outcomes. The 2010 Elections in Florida does just that by providing us with a clear picture as to how the discerning mood of Floridians, the attractiveness of the Tea Party’s conservative message, a sputtering economy, the decline in approval ratings for President Obama and Democrats in Congress, and the all-important factor of money influencing the outcome of what many have called a “wave” election both in Florida and the nation.