Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories

In 2014, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) engaged the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to convene a planning committee to organize a public workshop for an expert open discussion of their then-current livestock models. The models had worked well for some time. Unfortunately beginning in 2013, an epidemic that killed baby pigs broke out in the United States. The epidemic was not fully realized until 2014 and spread to many states. The result was a decline in hog inventories and pork production that was not predicted by the models. NASS delayed the workshop until 2019 while it worked to develop models that could help in times both of equilibrium and shock (disease or disaster), as well as alternative approaches to help detect the onset of a shock. The May 15, 2019, workshop was consistent with NASS's 2014 intention, but with a focus on a model that can help predict hog inventories over time, including during times of shock. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop. Table of Contents Front Matter 1 Introduction 2 Motivation and Challenges 3 The Quarterly Hog Inventory Survey 4 Setting Official Estimates: The Hog Board 5 Modeling Efforts 6 Web-Scraping Effects 7 Modeling Swine Population Dynamics 8 Discussion of Detection and Monitoring 9 Discussion of Modeling 10 Discussion of State-Level Estimation 11 Discussion of Visions for the Future References Appendix A: Agenda and List of Participants Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Planning Committee Members and Speakers Committee on National Statistics