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Comprehensive overview of how to ensure adequate power resources in a decarbonized world powered by renewable energy Power System Resource Adequacy for Clean Energy explores and addresses the challenges and solutions associated with ensuring adequate power resources as power grids transition toward a decarbonized and renewable energy future, discussing assumptions, methodologies, modeling frameworks, detailed inputs, and result analysis. The book illustrates the methodology, approaches, and nuances of resource adequacy studies to determine seasonal planning reserve margins as well as resource peak capacity contributions to meet peak demand. The saturation effects of renewable resources and energy-limited resources are highlighted, and importance of resource adequacy verification is emphasized. Written by an expert with a wealth of real-world experience in the field, Power System Resource Adequacy for Clean Energy includes information on: The impact of climate change, seasonal planning reserve margins, multi-metric criteria for resource adequacyWind and solar generation profiles, energy storage and thermal generation modeling, and the flexibility of hydroelectric generationOperating and balancing reserve, effective load carrying capability, saturation effects, and marginal and average ELCCResource adequacy verification, a critical concept in ensuring that the peak demands are truly met by built resourcesPower System Resource Adequacy for Clean Energy is an excellent reference on the subject for power system planners, federal and state energy policy makers and commissioners, and professors, researchers, and graduate students in Electrical & Computer Engineering.
Renchang Dai, PhD, is a Principal Engineer and Project Manager with Puget Sound Energy. He manages resource adequacy analysis projects and conducts long-term transmission and resource planning.
About the Author viiiPreface ix1 Introduction 11.1 Demand Forecast 21.2 Reliability Metrics 31.3 Resource Adequacy Evaluation Method 31.4 Regional and Local Resource Adequacy Coordination 41.5 Resource Adequacy Verification 5References 62 Resource Adequacy Study Overview 92.1 Resource Adequacy Metrics 182.1.1 Loss-of-load Probability 192.1.2 Loss-of-load Hours 192.1.3 Loss-of-load Expectation 192.1.4 Expected Unserved Energy 192.1.5 Value at Risk 202.1.6 Multi-metric 212.1.7 Reliability Metric Threshold 222.2 Regulatory Policy and Impact 23References 253 Load Forecast 273.1 Methodology 283.1.1 Regression Methods 283.1.2 Time-series Methods 303.1.3 Machine Learning Model 313.1.3.1 Feedforward Network 323.1.3.2 Recurrent Neural Network 333.2 Input Assumptions 343.3 Climate Change 353.4 Demand-side Resources Impacts 383.5 Stochastic Scenarios 39References 404 Planning Reserve Margin 434.1 Operating Reserves 444.1.1 Contingency Reserve 454.1.2 Regulation Reserve 474.2 Balancing Reserve 504.2.1 Three-standard-deviation Rule 514.2.2 Stochastic Economic Dispatch 524.3 Reliability Target 534.4 Seasonal PRM 54References 635 Resource Adequacy Modeling 655.1 Wind Power Generation 655.1.1 Wind Turbine Aerodynamics 665.1.2 Drivetrain Model 675.1.3 Pitch Control Model 695.1.4 Power Curve 705.1.5 Wind Velocity 735.1.5.1 Meteorological Model 745.1.5.2 Statistical Model 775.2 Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation 825.2.1 PV Cell Simplified Model 825.2.2 PV Cell Practical Model 845.2.3 Cell Temperature 865.2.4 PV Cell Power Generation 875.2.5 PV Efficiency 875.2.6 Solar Irradiation and Ambient Temperature 875.3 Energy Storage 915.3.1 Battery Storage 915.3.2 Pumped Hydroelectric Energy Storage 925.3.3 Compressed Air Energy Storage 935.3.3.1 Thermodynamics of CAES 945.3.3.2 CAES Model 965.4 Hydroelectric Generation 995.4.1 Conventional Hydroelectric Power Plants 1005.4.2 Run-of-the-river Hydroelectric Plant 1015.4.3 River Discharge 1015.4.4 Numerical Examples 1025.4.4.1 Run-of-the-River Hydroelectric Power Plant 1045.4.4.2 Conventional Hydroelectric Power Plant 1045.5 Thermal Generation 104References 1096 Resource Adequacy Methodology 1136.1 Reliability Metric Evaluation 1136.1.1 Thermal and Hydro Unit Dispatch 1146.1.2 Hydro Unit Flexibility 1176.1.3 Energy Storage Dispatch 1186.1.4 Demand Response Logic 1196.2 PRM Calculation 1206.3 Effective Load Carrying Capability 1206.3.1 Seasonal ELCC 1216.3.2 Non-dispatchable Resource ELCC Saturation 1216.3.3 Energy-Limited Resource ELCC Saturation 1246.3.4 Hybrid Resource ELCC Saturation 127References 1347 Regional and Local Resource Adequacy Coordination 1357.1 Regional Resource Adequacy 1357.1.1 Load Diversity Benefit 1367.1.2 Renewable Power Generation Diversity Benefit 1377.2 Regional Resource Sharing Program 1397.3 Market Purchases 139References 1408 Resource Adequacy Verification 1418.1 Long-Term Capacity Expansion Model 1428.1.1 Wind and Solar Generation 1448.1.2 Resource Cost Structure 1458.2 Wind and Solar Resource Grouping 1468.3 Resource Adequacy Verification 1478.4 Resource Adequacy Adjustment 1488.5 Numerical Case Study 1488.5.1 Generic Resource Technology 1498.5.2 Generic Resource Cost 1498.5.3 Generic Resource Marginal and Average ELCC 1508.5.4 Levelized Peak Capacity Cost 1528.5.5 Resource Adequacy and Long-term Capacity Expansion Iteration 157References 1619 Conclusions 163Index 165