Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers

This report is the summary of a workshop conducted by the National Research Council in order to learn from both forecast makers and forecast users about improvements that can be made in understanding the markets for doctoral scientists and engineers. The workshop commissioned papers examined (1) the history and problems with models of demand and supply for scientists and engineers, (2) objectives and approaches to forecasting models, (3) margins of adjustment that have been neglected in models, especially substitution and quality, (4) the presentation of uncertainty, and (5) whether these forecasts of supply and demand are worthwhile, given all their shortcomings. The focus of the report was to provide guidance to the NSF and to scholars in this area on how models and the forecasts derived from them might be improved, and what role NSF should play in their improvement. In addition, the report examined issues of reporting forecasts to policymakers. Table of Contents Front Matter Executive Summary 1 Background 2 Models of Demand for Doctoral Scientists and Engineers 3 Objectives and Approaches of Forecasting Models 4 Neglected Margins of Adjustment: Substitution and Quality 5 Presentation of Uncertainty and Use of Forecasts with Explicit Uncertainty 6 Summary and Recommendations References Appendix A Workshop Agenda Appendix B Biographical Information on Workshop Speakers Appendix C List of Workshop Participants