Climate Security in South Asia

The South Asia region presents a confluence of major climate impacts and key security issues. From a weather and climate standpoint, the region experiences a wide range of hazards, such as the recent heatwaves, droughts, storms, and floods that have upended the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. From a demographic and socioeconomic standpoint, the region is experiencing rapid transformations and progress, even as fundamental challenges such as poverty and inequality persist. From a security standpoint, the region is the setting for a range of social and political dynamics that impact U.S. interests, including conflict at national and subnational levels; regional rivalries; and the imprint of global geopolitics. On October 26-27, 2022, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, under the auspices of the National Academies Climate Security Roundtable, convened a workshop to explore climate security in South Asia. Over two days, workshop participants considered some of the underlying climate, development, and geopolitical dynamics at play in the South Asia region; explored a set of historical case studies and future scenarios for climate change and security in South Asia; and they considered the available tools for analysis and forecasting climate-related risks. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussion of the workshop. Table of Contents Front Matter Workshop Overview 1 Introduction 2 Climate, Development, and Security Challenges in South Asia 3 Historical Case Studies 4 Possible Futures 5 Tools for Analysis and Forecasting 6 Reflecting on Climate Security Risk in South Asia References Appendix A: National Academies Climate Security Roundtable Appendix B: Workshop Agenda Appendix C: Workshop Planning Committee Biographical Sketches Appendix D: Workshop Speaker Biographical Sketches