Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems

Inbunden, Engelska, 2013

AvCars Hommes

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Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, the book presents a theory of behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems and confronts the nonlinear dynamic models with empirical stylized facts and laboratory experiments. The complexity modeling paradigm has been strongly advocated since the late 1980s by some economists and by multidisciplinary scientists from various fields, such as physics, computer science and biology. More recently the complexity view has also drawn the attention of policy makers, who are faced with complex phenomena, irregular fluctuations and sudden, unpredictable market transitions. The complexity tools - bifurcations, chaos, multiple equilibria - discussed in this book will help students, researchers and policy makers to build more realistic behavioral models with heterogeneous expectations to describe financial market movements and macro-economic fluctuations, in order to better manage crises in a complex global economy.

Produktinformation

Utgivningsdatum2013-01-24
Mått177 x 254 x 16 mm
Vikt680 g
FormatInbunden
SpråkEngelska
Antal sidor268
FörlagCambridge University Press
ISBN9781107019294

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Mikroekonomi inom Ekonomi och Ledarskap

Cars Hommes is Professor of Economic Dynamics at the University of Amsterdam (UvA). After his PhD in Mathematical Economics at the University of Groningen, he founded the Center of Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance (CeNDEF), an interdisciplinary research group at UvA, pursuing theoretical, experimental and empirical research on complex systems, bounded rationality and behavioral agent-based models in economics and finance.

'Professor Hommes' work is a major contribution to the understanding of intertemporal economic fluctuations. In a world in which production and investment behavior is motivated by expectations of the future, the way those expectations are formed becomes of the utmost importance. These expectations lead to dynamic systems, and the author draws on the rich literature developed for the study of mechanical and gravitational phenomena. These lead to the emergence of very complex behavior in markets driven by expectations, especially when different economic agents have different modes of forming expectations from data. The study of this book will have a profound impact on the theoretical and empirical analysis of securities markets and other forms of investment.' Kenneth J. Arrow, Joan Kenney Professor of Economics and Professor of Operations Research, Emeritus, Stanford University, and Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, 1972