Who Votes Now?

Jan E. Leighley is professor of political science at American University. She is the author of Strength in Numbers?: The Political Mobilization of Racial and Ethnic Minorities (Princeton) and Mass Media and Politics: A Social Science Perspective. Jonathan Nagler is professor of politics at New York University. He is an inaugural fellow of the Society for Political Methodology.

• List of Figures xi List of Tables xiii Preface xv Acknowledgments xix One Introduction 1 1.1 Economic Inequality, Income Bias, and Turnout 4 1.2 Policy Choices and Turnout 6 1.3 Economic Inequality and Voting Inequality 7 1.4 Voter Turnout and Election Laws 10 1.5 Data and Chapter Outline 11 Two Demographics of Turnout 16 2.1 Measuring Voter Turnout 18 2.2 Measuring Socioeconomic Status 23 2.3 Measuring Race and Ethnicity 25 2.4 Demographics of Turnout, 1972-2008 (CPS) 27 2.5 A More or Less Representative Voting Population? 35 2.6 More or Less Income Bias? 37 2.7 Representation: Of the Eligible or the Available? 43 2.8 Conclusion 45 Appendix 2.1: Current Population Survey: Sample and Variable Details 46 Appendix 2.2: Additional Data on the Representativeness of Voters, 1972-2008 48 Three Theoretical Framework and Models 52 3.1 Costs, Benefits, and Demographics 54 3.2 Model Specification 55 3.3 Education and Income 58 3.4 Race and Ethnicity 67 3.5 Age 72 3.6 Gender and Marital Status 76 3.7 Conclusion 79 Appendix 3.1: Estimation Results for the Demographic Models of Voter Turnout 84 Appendix 3.2: Additional First Differences for Income 88 Four The Legal Context of Turnout 90 4.1 Electoral Innovation in the United States 91 4.2 Previous Research on Electoral Rules and Turnout 95 4.3 Research Design and the Search for Effects 97 4.4 The Effects of Electoral Reforms: Difference-in-Difference Estimates 100 4.5 Cross-Sectional Time Series Analysis of Aggregate Turnout 112 4.6 Conclusion 117 Appendix 4.1: Voter Registration and Election Law Data Set 119 Appendix 4.2: Sources of State-Level Turnout and Demographic Data 120 Five Policy Choices and Turnout 121 5.1 Policy Choices and the Costs and Benefits of Voting 122 5.2 Policy Choices: Conceptualization and Measurement 124 5.3 Perceived Policy Choices, 1972-2008 126 5.4 Multivariable Analysis: Perceived Policy Alienation and Perceived Policy Difference 128 5.5 Perceived Policy Difference and Perceived Policy Alienation across Income Groups 135 5.6 Conclusion 139 Appendix 5.1: Comparing Alternative Measures of Alienation and Indifference 147 Six On the Representativeness of Voters 154 6.1 The Conventional Wisdom 155 6.2 Political Differences between Voters and Nonvoters: 1972 and 2008 158 6.3 Who Votes Matters: Policy Differences between Voters and Nonvoters 161 6.4 A More Detailed Look at Preferences: 2004 167 6.5 Conclusion 176 Appendix 6.1: Survey Question Wording 177 Seven Conclusion 182 7.1 The Politics of Candidate Choices and Policy Choices 183 7.2 Turnout and Institutions 185 7.3 On Turnout and Political Inequality 187 References 189 Index 201

"Who Votes Now? provides a fresh and valuable look at questions basic to the functioning of a democratic society."--Dan Balz, Washington Post "Who Votes Now? is a must-read for students of voting behaviour."--Steffen Zittlau, Political Studies Review