Vega Factor

KENT MOORS is Professor in the Department of Political Science and the Graduate Center for Social and Public Policy at Duquesne University, where he also directs the Energy Policy Research Group. An internationally recognized expert in oil and gas policy/finance and risk assessment, Kent is also President of the oil and gas consulting firm ASIDA, Inc., advising companies, financial institutions, law firms, and governments worldwide. He authors the Oil and Energy Investor, a twice-weekly advisory, the monthly Energy Advantage, and the investment alert service The Energy Inner Circle, and is a frequent contributor to Money Morning and contributing editor to the two leading post-Soviet oil and gas publications—Russian Petroleum Investor and Caspian Investor. Through an agreement with DeMatteo Monness, he provides specialized advisories to a broad range of Wall Street analysts, as well as investment, hedge fund, and capital and asset managers.

• Preface ixChapter 1 The Meaning of Oil Vega 1Chapter 2 How Oil Volatility Relates to Strategic Risk 15Chapter 3 Determining Oil Prices 37Chapter 4 Dollars, Credit, Financial Crises, . . . and the Oil Connection 57Chapter 5 Oil Companies and the Upstream/ Downstream Tradeoff 101Chapter 6 How Government Action Increases Volatility 141Chapter 7 Is There a Response? 179Appendix A World Proved Oil Reserves (Billion Barrels) 197Appendix B Exxon CARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000 to December 31, 2007) 209Appendix C Exxon ARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000 to December 31, 2007) 221Appendix D Shell CARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000 to December 31, 2007) 241Appendix E Shell ARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000 to December 31, 2007) 253Appendix F BP CARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000 to December 31, 2007) 273Appendix G BP ARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000 to December 31, 2007) 285Notes 305About the Author 421Index 423