Fiscal Policy and the Natural Resources Curse

Paul Mosley is a development economist with strong interests in politics and the welfare state. He has held professorial chairs at the universities of Manchester and Reading, and is currently Professor of Economics at the University of Sheffield, UK.

• Contents List of Figures List of Tables PrefaceList of Abbreviations Introduction The way forward: how do ‘inclusive’ alliances happen? 1. Analytic framework2. Case studies of resource-intensive countries:i. The classic comparison: Nigeria vs. Indonesia revisitedii. Other ‘strategic alliances’: Chile, Botswana, Ghana and Boliviaiii. Other rentier-dominated states: Venezuela and Zambia3. Summary and conclusion The fiscal politics of mineral development in Ghana1. Introduction: political settlements and their economic consequences prior to the 1980s2. Transformation of the tax structure: political and economic drivers, 1981-20153. The politics of public expenditure allocation and poverty in Ghana4. Mining, technical rigidity and poverty5. Can Ghana be seen as a ‘proto-developmental state’ Zambia: democratization without a ‘social dividend’? 1. Introduction 2. The political and economic background to 2006 3. Neoliberalism challenged: the evolution of the political bargain and of tax policy 2006-20154. The public finance bargain and welfare outcomes Bolivia: a ‘hybrid’ political economy? 1. Introduction2. The political and economic background to 20033. Neoliberalism challenged: the evolution of the political bargain and of tax policy 2005-20144. Public expenditure, social policies and poverty5. Politics, fiscal policy and political stability6. Summing-up and longer-term challenges for policy Appendix: Survey results The politics of inclusive fiscal policy 1. The basic story2. Drivers of tax revenue, competitiveness and poverty trends3. Testing the model4. Conclusions Conclusion: How can mineral-rich countries create ‘developmental states’?1. The politics of ‘developmental states’2. Export diversification: what distinguishes the successful cases?3. Concluding thoughts: what can these ideas do for the poorest? BibliographyIndex