Epidemiology Kept Simple

B. Burt Gerstman, Professor in Department of Health Science, San Jose University, CA USA.

• Preface to the Third Edition xiPreface to the First Edition xiiiAcknowledgments xv1 Epidemiology Past and Present 11.1 Epidemiology and its uses 21.2 Evolving patterns of morbidity and mortality 51.3 Selected historical figures and events 81.4 Chapter summary 30Review questions 31References 322 Causal Concepts 362.1 Natural history of disease 362.2 Variability in the expression of disease 402.3 Causal models 412.4 Causal inference 48Exercises 58Review questions 61References 633 Epidemiologic Measures 663.1 Measures of disease frequency 673.2 Measures of association 743.3 Measures of potential impact 793.4 Rate adjustment 82Exercises 90Review questions 98References 99Addendum: additional mathematical details 1014 Descriptive Epidemiology 1044.1 Introduction 1044.2 Epidemiologic variables 1084.3 Ecological correlations 116Exercises 121Review questions 123References 1245 Introduction to Epidemiologic Study Design 1265.1 Etiologic research 1265.2 Ethical conduct of studies involving human subjects 1295.3 Selected study design elements 1305.4 Common types of epidemiologic studies 137Exercises 138Review questions 140References 1416 Experimental Studies 1426.1 Introduction 1426.2 Historical perspective 1446.3 General concepts 1466.4 Data analysis 152Exercises 156Review questions 157References 1577 Observational Cohort Studies 1597.1 Introduction 1597.2 Historical perspective 1617.3 Assembling and following a cohort 1637.4 Prospective, retrospective, and ambidirectional cohorts 1647.5 Addressing the potential for confounding 1657.6 Data analysis 1667.7 Historically important study: Wade Hampton Frost’s birth cohorts 170Exercises 174Review questions 177References 1778 Case–Control Studies 1808.1 Introduction 1808.2 Identifying cases and controls 1828.3 Obtaining information on exposure 1858.4 Data analysis 1868.5 Statistical justifications of case–control odds ratio as relative risks 193Exercises 194Review questions 198References 1999 Error in Epidemiologic Research 2019.1 Introduction 2019.2 Random error (imprecision) 2039.3 Systematic error (bias) 209Exercises 217Review questions 219References 22010 Screening for Disease 22210.1 Introduction 22310.2 Reliability (agreement) 22410.3 Validity 228Summary 238Exercises 239Review questions 243References 24310.4 Chapter addendum (case study) 244Further reading—screening for HIV 248Further reading—general concepts of screening 248Answers to case study: screening for antibodies to the human immunodeficiency virus 24911 The Infectious Disease Process 25511.1 The infectious disease process 25511.2 Herd immunity 265Exercises 267Review questions 268References 27012 Outbreak Investigation 27112.1 Background 27212.2 CDC prescribed investigatory steps 273Review questions 282References 283References—a drug–disease outbreak 28613 Confidence Intervals and p-Values 30213.1 Introduction 30313.2 Confidence intervals 30413.3 p-Values 31213.4 Minimum Bayes factors 319References 32214 Mantel–Haenszel Methods 32314.1 Ways to prevent confounding 32314.2 Simpson’s paradox 32514.3 Mantel–Haenszel methods for risk ratios 32514.4 Mantel–Haenszel methods for other measures of association 329Exercise 335References 33515 Statistical Interaction: Effect Measure Modification 33715.1 Two types of interaction 33715.2 Chi-square test for statistical 34015.3 Strategy for stratified analysis 342Exercises 344References 34516 Case Definitions and Disease Classification 34716.1 Case definitions 34716.2 International classification of disease 35116.3 Artifactual fluctuations in reported rates 35316.4 Summary 354References 35517 Survival Analysis 35617.1 Introduction 35617.2 Stratifying rates by follow-up time 35917.3 Actuarial method of survival analysis 36017.4 Kaplan–Meier method of survival analysis 36217.5 Comparing the survival experience of two groups 364Exercises 369References 37118 Current Life Tables 37318.1 Introduction 37318.2 Complete life table 37418.3 Abridged life table 380Exercises 383References 38419 Random Distribution of Cases in Time and Space 38519.1 Introduction 38519.2 The Poisson distribution 38619.3 Goodness of fit of the Poisson distribution 39019.4 Summary 394Exercises 395References 396Answers to Exercises and Review Questions 398Appendix 1: 95% Confidence Limits for Poisson Counts 434Appendix 2: Tail Areas in the Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Double These Areas for Two-Sided p-Values 436Appendix 3: Right-Tail Areas in Chi-Square Distributions 439Appendix 4: Case Study—Cigarette Smoking and Lung Cancer 441Appendix 5: Case Study—Tampons and Toxic Shock Syndrome 448Index 455

"This edition does a good job of updating the previous editions, which have not covered the ASPH epidemiology competencies."  (Doody’s, 21 February 2014)