Climate and Social Stress

Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events-slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Climate Change as a National Security Concern 2 Climate Change, Vulnerability, and National Security: A Conceptual Framework 3 Potentially Disruptive Climate Events 4 How Climate Events Can Lead to Social and Political Stresses 5 Climate Events and National Security Outcomes 6 Methods for Assessing National Security Threats References Appendix A: Committee Member and Staff Biographies Appendix B: Briefings Received by the Committee Appendix C: Method for Developing Figure 3-1 Appendix D: Statistical Methods for Assessing Probabilities of Extreme Events Appendix E: Foundations for Monitoring ClimateSecurity Connections