Behavioral Modeling and Simulation

Today's military missions have shifted away from fighting nation states using conventional weapons toward combating insurgents and terrorist networks in a battlespace in which the attitudes and behaviors of civilian noncombatants may be the primary effects of military actions. To support these new missions, the military services are increasingly interested in using models of the behavior of humans, as individuals and in groups of various kinds and sizes. Behavioral Modeling and Simulation reviews relevant individual, organizational, and societal (IOS) modeling research programs, evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of the programs and their methodologies, determines which have the greatest potential for military use, and provides guidance for the design of a research program to effectively foster the development of IOS models useful to the military. This book will be of interest to model developers, operational military users of the models and their managers, and government personnel making funding decisions regarding model development. Table of Contents Front Matter Executive Summary Part I: BACKGROUND AND NEED FOR ORGANIZATIONAL MODELS, 1 Introduction 2 Military Missions and How IOS Models Can Help Part II: STATE OF THE ART IN ORGANIZATIONAL MODELING, Part II: State of the Art in Organizational Modeling 3 Verbal Conceptual and Cultural Models 4 Macro-Level Formal Models 5 Micro-Level Formal Models 6 Meso-Level Formal Models 7 Games 8 Common Challenges in IOS Modeling 9 State of the Art with Respect to Military Needs Part III: ADDRESSING UNMET MODELING NEEDS, 10 Pitfalls, Lessons Learned, and Future Needs 11 Recommendations for Military-Sponsored Modeling Research Appendix A: Acronyms and Abbreviations Appendix B: Exemplary Scenarios and Vignettes to Illustrate Potential Model Uses Appendix C: Candidate DIME/PMESII Modeling Paradigms Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff