Scenario-Based Planning as a Tool for Conflict Resolution

Scenario-based Planning (SBP) is a tool used by governments, private companies and NGOs for envisioning possible future outcomes. The general principle of this framework is to consider the possibility of change and to empower its users in the creation of a path towards the transformation of current realities. SBP shares methodological, theoretical and epistemological similarities with the Problem-solving (PS) methods used within the Conflict Resolution (CR) field. Furthermore, SBP has been used in several post-conflict and conflictive societies to create a common agenda for the future of a whole nation. Although much can be said about certain critical issues in the use of SBP, like representation, sustainability, applicability, lack of a concrete theory, re-entry problems, cultural generalization and the phenomenon of group think, the case studies in Guatemala and South Africa show its great potential within the field of CR, especially if it is framed within the general idea of PS.