Revising Rd Program Budgets When Considering Funding Curtailment with a Weibull Model

This research develops an analytical technique to estimate the impact of funding curtailment on an RD program. The method quickly produces a revised budget by year for an on-going RD program when funding in one year is reduced. We assume program requirements remain unchanged. The program duration may be unchanged or stretched to a later completion date. We use the Rayleigh and Weibull functions to model expenditure profiles, which forms basis of the analytical approach. Our proposed methodology accounts for budget outlay rates and inflation. We validate the proposed analytical technique using historical cost data from several programs.