Long-Range Forecast Possibilities for X-Band Radar Construction On Shemya

The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) plans to construct, during a two-week period, an X-Band Radar (XBR) on Shemya, AK. Wind speeds must not, at any time during the construction, exceed a 25 knot limit set by the MDA for lifting the massive dome panels into place. The goal of this research was to explore the possibilities of longrange forecasts to determine the feasibility of predicting any upcoming two-week windows of opportunity, well in advance, that will ensure the successful completion of constructing the XBR on Shemya. In order to reach this goal, the following objectives were achieved; 1) a climatological wind study for Shemya to assess the optimal "climatological window" to build the XBR, 2) a detailed synoptic study over the North Pacific, to gain an understanding of how synoptic weather systems develop, move, and vary on an annual basis, 3) a traditional statistical analysis of the data followed by a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis for pattern recognition of global teleconnection indices, and 4) develop forecasting decision trees to assist the 11th Operational Weather Squadron (OWS) Alaskan forecast hub in this daunting task.