Climate Change and Winter Rice (Boro) Cultivation in Bangladesh

An agro-climatic study was conducted to assess the vulnerability of winter rice (boro) production in Bangladesh to potential climate change. Effect of climate change on yield of two varieties of boro rice has been assessed using the DSSAT (v4) modeling system. The yield of BR3 and BR14 boro varieties for the years 2008, 2030, 2050 and 2070 have been simulated for 12 locations of Bangladesh, which were selected from among the major rice growing areas in different regions of Bangladesh. Available data on soil and hydrologic characteristics of these locations, and typical crop management practice for boro rice were used in the simulations. The weather data required for the model (daily maximum and minimum temperatures, daily solar radiation and daily precipitation) were generated for the selected years and for the selected locations using the regional climate model PRECIS. The model predicted significant reduction in yield of both varieties of boro rice due to climate change; yield reductions of over 20% and 50% have been predicted for both rice varieties for the years 2050 and 2070, respectively.