A Decision Support Framework for Flood Risk Management

Early warning is a key element for disaster risk reduction. However, the advances in generating hazard risk information have not yet been incorporated into operational forecast systems and consequently, operational forecasts have not been integrated into decision making processes in order to reduce disaster risks. This paper describes a decision support framework (DSS) for flood risk management using one to ten days multiple weather ensemble (EPS) forecasts of the European Center for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF), integrating hydrological models, and combining GIS and user needs. It designed to interpret, translate, and communicate science-based risk information into user-friendly early warning information products to assist emergency managers and decision makers. The DSS interface allows users to interactively specify the objectives and criteria that are germane to a particular situation, and obtain the management options (strategies) that are possible, and the exogenous influences (scenarios) that should be taken into account before policy planning and decision making. The lumped and semi-distributed hydrological model was used in the multi-model discharge forecasting scheme.